The maritime security landscape in the Red Sea and Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is characterized by escalating threats and vulnerabilities. Recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have highlighted the growing risks posed by relatively cheap and hard-to-detect drones. These drones, along with anti-ship missiles and roaming munitions, have become a core tactic of the Houthis, targeting commercial vessels sailing through the critical Bab el-Mandel Strait - a key chokepoint connecting the Horn of Africa to the Middle East. The use of these advanced weapons highlights a troubling shift in technologically sophisticated attacks on maritime assets, heralding potential future threats to shipping, ports and navigation systems.

The impact of these security challenges is tangible. Drone and missile attacks by the Houthis have severely disrupted shipping routes and affected global trade flows. According to Allianz Commercial's recently released Safety and Shipping Review 2024, traffic through the Suez Canal fell by more than 42 percent in early 2024 compared to the previous year, Container traffic is down 82 percent, and dedicated car carriers on the Red Sea have more than halved.

According to Castor Vali Risk Management, the use of unmanned air systems and missiles by Houthi militants is exacerbating the asymmetric threat to maritime trade. As shipping routes increasingly bypass the Cape of Good Hope, ships will pass through the Gulf of Guinea, an area that is already highly unstable. With a potential influx of new, low-cost weapons, there is a growing risk that the Red Sea and the Gulf of Guinea could become permanent hotspots of maritime insecurity.

In the Gulf of Guinea, the situation reflects a different but no less pressing problem. The region's vast Marine resources are part of the so-called blue economy, but remain largely untapped due to chronic "ocean blindness" - a focus on land security at the expense of maritime considerations. This neglect leaves GoG countries vulnerable to exploitation by criminal networks, exacerbating maritime insecurity. The lack of investment and strategic focus on maritime space makes these areas attractive targets for maritime crime.

In Nigeria, maritime security has been further compromised by piracy. Despite legislative efforts such as the Combating Piracy and Other Maritime Crimes Act of 2019 (SPOMO), Guinea still accounts for 80% of reported acts of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria recorded 35 pirate attacks in 2020, highlighting the seriousness of crime at sea despite regulatory measures.

The overall risk profile is high in both regions. The "high" sovereign and "extremely high" supply chain risks in the Gulf of Guinea highlight the enormous economic and security challenges facing countries in the region, while the "extremely high" sovereign and supply chain risks in the Red Sea have been exacerbated by sophisticated Houthi attacks.

Because of the disruption of the Red Sea, maritime trade is increasingly passing through the Cape of Good Hope, and the Gulf of Guinea is at greater risk. GoG's "high" sovereign risk and "very high" supply chain risk reflect an unstable environment further complicated by a potential influx of new, cheap weapons. Due to the confluence of asymmetric threats and existing maritime vulnerabilities, the likelihood of these areas becoming permanent hot spots increases.

According to Upply's analysis, the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Guinea are listed as important hotspots for maritime trade. The high scores for both regions highlight their current and potential risks. The Gulf of Guinea could soon become another major area of instability, given the escalating threats and instability, especially the new cheap weapons that could affect maritime security.