Trump's return to the White House, the historic freight volume is not reduced, but increased?
With Trump back in the White House, will the container shipping market suffer again? Despite the general consensus that container shipping will be at great risk from Trump's return, the data show that tariffs have not significantly reduced freight volumes.
Linerlytica analysis shows that the US container trade deficit has continued to widen since the Trump administration implemented its first round of tariffs in 2018. That policy remained largely unchanged during the Biden administration.
In terms of specific data, the amount of fully loaded import containers in the United States far exceeds exports, and the proportion has reached 2.4 times in 2024, which is a significant increase from 1.8 times in 2018. During the same period, the average monthly import volume rose by 18%, while the volume of exports decreased by 10%, and the number of empty containers returned from the United States increased by 39%. This shows that tariffs have not deterred imports, but have made the gap between imports and exports in the United States even wider.
Mr Trump has outlined plans to impose across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent on most of the $3tn in annual imports if he returns to office, with tariffs of as little as 60 per cent on all imports from China in particular.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said such an aggressive tariff proposal could have a stronger impact on seaborne cargo flows and freight rates than in 2018.
Christian Roeloffs, CEO of Container xChange, pointed out that such tariff policies will cause global trade turmoil, may lead to the reconfiguration of cargo flows, and even give rise to strategies to avoid tariffs, which will drive the demand for container shipping.
Analysts at Sea-Intelligence also predict a short-term surge in demand if Trump wins the election, as importers are likely to accelerate the pace of shipments into the United States before the new tariffs take effect. However, in the medium and long term, the imposition of tariffs will prompt importers to adjust their purchasing strategies to mitigate the tariff impact.
Sea-Intelligence noted in a recent report that this is not necessarily bad news for shipping companies, but rather means that shipping networks need to adapt to different trade flows.
Lars Jensen, principal at container consultancy Vespucci Maritime, also believes Trump's election will boost U.S. imports in the short term. In the long run, however, it could spark an escalation of the trade war, prompting companies to reroute logistics, as happened with Chinese goods entering the US via Mexico to avoid tariffs.