Analysis of maritime security risk trends in major global shipping corridors
Maritime security is essential for the stability of global trade, especially in the important shipping corridors of the Gulf of Guinea, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, which are integral to the global movement of goods.
However, these regions face unique challenges and risks that can disrupt international trade, including piracy, political instability, and state fragility.
A recent report by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) stressed the need for a new specialized agency within the United Nations to address the growing global maritime security problem in a comprehensive manner and noted the current lack of a dedicated institutional framework.
Container News conducted a quantitative study using indicators such as connectivity, state fragility and political stability to assess maritime risks in these key shipping areas.
The Gulf of Guinea remains an area of high risk, with the maritime risk index ranging from 0.61 to 0.63 for 2020 to 2022 and climbing to 0.64 in 2023. The rise is a sign of escalating risks, highlighted by ongoing issues such as piracy and political unrest. Neighbouring countries such as Nigeria, Cameroon and Ghana have inadequate governance.
In contrast, the sea risk index in the Red Sea improved slightly, from 0.6 in 2020 to 0.58 in 2023. Despite the decline, the region still faces a moderate level of risk due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the activities of non-state actors, particularly around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Persian Gulf's maritime risk index has consistently been the lowest of the three regions, falling from 0.55 in 2020 to 0.51 in 2023, indicating increased regional stability and reduced risks associated with state vulnerability. This positive trend is likely due to increased regional cooperation, political stability in key countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and efforts to diversify their economies away from oil.
A comparative analysis of these regions reveals different maritime risk trends:
Gulf of Guinea: Highest risk, with recent increases in risk highlighting the urgent need to strengthen security and governance.
Red Sea: Although risks are decreasing, the region's ongoing vulnerabilities require ongoing security measures.
Persian Gulf: showed the most stable and sustained improvement, but must remain alert to potential geopolitical changes.
Understanding these dynamics is critical for policymakers, international entities, and private sector stakeholders to protect these vital sea lanes and ensure continued global trade.