American line continues to rise, New Year's Day European line freight or will be further pushed higher
The latest data of the Shanghai Container Export Freight Index (SCFI) shows that the index has risen for four consecutive weeks, and the index released on the 20th was 2,390.17 points, up 0.24% from the previous week. Among them, the Far East to the West and East of the United States increased by more than 4% and 2%, while the European and Mediterranean lines showed a slight decline in freight rates, falling 0.57% and 0.35%, respectively.
The rate increase partly reflects the effect of higher prices in mid-December, especially as the US-West route also benefited from the diversion of orders caused by the fear of a strike in the US East. Before the lunar year, the factory continued to ship, and the tight supply and demand of shipping space also further pushed up the freight rate.
North American freight rates are affected by the collective bargaining negotiations at the US East Terminal, which have a deadline of January 15, 2025. Due to differences between the International Longshore Workers Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX), which represents the management, on automation issues, and US President-elect Donald Trump's support for the anti-automation stance of longshore workers, labor negotiations have become more difficult and North American line freight rates have remained high.
Shipping industry insiders said that the risk of strike by dock workers in the East of the United States continues to exist, and the freight rate of the East and West routes will continue to remain strong. Meishi quoted about $4,450 this week, up about $2,000 from early December; The United States East this week quoted about 5900 US dollars, compared with early December about 1200 US dollars, the current shipping company began shipping before the lunar year, the space is tight. European routes offer about $4,900 to $5,200 this week, before entering the Lunar New Year festival, customers continue to ship.
Freight forwarding industry sources said that the current shipping company planning, after the New Year's Day next year, European and American freight rates may be further pushed up. Recently, Asia is preparing for the Lunar New Year, and there has been a rush for goods, not only the Far East - Europe and the United States line freight rate has risen, but also the demand for offshore lines is quite hot. Among them, the main airlines in the United States have announced a price increase of 1000-2000 US dollars, the European line MSC offer in January is 5240 US dollars, only slightly higher than the current freight rate; Maersk reported prices lower in the first week of January than in the last week of December, but will rise to $5,500 in the second week. This may be related to the upcoming reorganization of the shipping alliance in February next year, and the European shipping companies to grab goods and grab customers.
In addition, Xie Fulong, general manager of Wanhai, pointed out that the lack of consensus between dock workers and management representatives, the strong demand for global container ship chartering and high rental prices, the unresolved Red Sea crisis and port congestion caused by large-scale ships are the key factors that indirectly push up freight rates. Among them, the rental of 4000TEU ships has soared nearly twice compared with the same period last year, and the global idle rate of ships has hit a record low of only 0.3%. In addition, the tariff policy of the new US President Donald Trump has not been decided, which is one of the most concerned issues of the market. Based on past experience, the implementation of the new tariff strategy may also trigger a wave of rush.
SCFI Rates:
Shanghai to Europe freight rate 2,946 US dollars /TEU, down 17 US dollars, weekly decline of 0.6%;
Shanghai to Mediterranean freight at $3,733 /TEU, down $13, or 0.3% weekly;
Freight from Shanghai to the West of the United States is 4,198 USD /FEU, up 175 USD, a weekly increase of 4.3%;
Shanghai to the United States East freight 5642 US dollars /FEU, up 148 US dollars, a weekly increase of 2.7%;
Persian Gulf shipping rate of $1,429 per box, down $78, a weekly decline of 5.2%;
South American route (Santos) per box freight of 5,351 US dollars, down 257 US dollars, a weekly decline of 4.58%;
Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight per box 711 US dollars, down 14 US dollars, week down 1.93%;
The portion of the oceanic line from the Far East to Japan and South Korea is basically about the same compared to last week.
