Traffic on the Panama Canal has not yet returned to previous levels
BIMCO data shows that ship capacity (measured in deadweight tons) passing through the Panama Canal between September 2024 and January 2025 was 10% lower than the 2019-2022 average. Despite the absence of movement restrictions during this period, transit volumes of dry bulk carriers, LNG carriers and oil tankers have not returned to historic levels.
From June 2023 to September 2024, due to the low water level of Gatun Lake, ship transit volume and draft depth in the Panama Canal are restricted, and ships compete for limited transit periods. During this period, the container shipping industry, etc., usually operates on a fixed schedule, which allows them to book time slots ahead of other ships, and unscheduled transit slots are acquired by auction, with the highest price awarded.
From a dry bulk carrier perspective, changes in U.S. grain trade patterns have contributed to a decrease in the number of ships transiting the Panama Canal. More and more U.S. goods are being exported from ports on the West Coast of the United States, bypassing the canal. Since September, total grain shipments from the West Coast to Pacific coast ports are up 21 percent from a year earlier, while shipments from the Gulf are down 6 percent from a year earlier. Coal cargoes also remain well below pre-restriction levels as ships prefer alternative routes. Instead, small bulk loads through the canal are approaching pre-limit levels, driven by increased steel and fertiliser cargoes.
From the perspective of LNG carriers, few of them have returned to the Panama Canal due to concerns about cargo safety. Since the vessels were given few transit hours and were not allowed to transit at night, circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn was considered a more reliable and flexible approach.
Filipe Gouveia said, "Although the recovery in some areas is slow, we still expect the number of ships passing through the canal to increase." According to the report, the transfer volume of container ships, LPG carriers and car carriers is already higher than historical levels and is likely to continue to grow. However, the medium-term outlook for the dry bulk sector is relatively "bleak" due to intense competition for grain shipments between the United States and Brazil and a poor outlook for coal demand.
From June 2023 to September 2024, due to the low water level of Gatun Lake, ship transit volume and draft depth in the Panama Canal are restricted, and ships compete for limited transit periods. During this period, the container shipping industry, etc., usually operates on a fixed schedule, which allows them to book time slots ahead of other ships, and unscheduled transit slots are acquired by auction, with the highest price awarded.
From a dry bulk carrier perspective, changes in U.S. grain trade patterns have contributed to a decrease in the number of ships transiting the Panama Canal. More and more U.S. goods are being exported from ports on the West Coast of the United States, bypassing the canal. Since September, total grain shipments from the West Coast to Pacific coast ports are up 21 percent from a year earlier, while shipments from the Gulf are down 6 percent from a year earlier. Coal cargoes also remain well below pre-restriction levels as ships prefer alternative routes. Instead, small bulk loads through the canal are approaching pre-limit levels, driven by increased steel and fertiliser cargoes.
From the perspective of LNG carriers, few of them have returned to the Panama Canal due to concerns about cargo safety. Since the vessels were given few transit hours and were not allowed to transit at night, circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn was considered a more reliable and flexible approach.
Filipe Gouveia said, "Although the recovery in some areas is slow, we still expect the number of ships passing through the canal to increase." According to the report, the transfer volume of container ships, LPG carriers and car carriers is already higher than historical levels and is likely to continue to grow. However, the medium-term outlook for the dry bulk sector is relatively "bleak" due to intense competition for grain shipments between the United States and Brazil and a poor outlook for coal demand.
