The container shipping market faces unprecedented uncertainty in 2025
The container shipping market in 2025 is facing unprecedented uncertainty, writes Lars Jensen, an analyst at Vespucci Maritime, who has never seen such a high level of uncertainty in his 24 years in the industry. Trump and the new US administration lack a basic understanding of economics, making shipping planning very difficult. The uncertainty is historic.
Even leaving aside the geopolitics of the United States, the shipping market in 2025 is already challenging. The resolution of the Red Sea crisis will directly affect route selection and freight rates. If the crisis continues, shipping capacity around Africa will remain tight, keeping freight rates relatively high; Once the crisis is resolved, the supply chain will undergo major adjustments, European ports may face severe congestion, and then the market may have overcapacity, resulting in a sharp decline in spot prices in the short term, increasing the operating risk of carriers.
The Trump administration's actions, especially the rapid changes in tariff policy, have further exacerbated market uncertainty. The frequent adjustments and unpredictability of tariff policies make it difficult for U.S. importers and exporters to plan their supply chains, adding additional costs. There is a fundamental error in Trump's understanding of tariffs and value-added taxes, which leads to a lack of rational basis for policy decisions and further reduces policy predictability.
In addition, geopolitical factors are also affecting the shipping market. The situation in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as diplomatic developments between the United States and countries like Panama, could have a direct or indirect impact on the shipping market. In particular, possible actions by the Trump administration, such as changing the status of Gaza or influencing Panama Canal access policies, could cause significant disruptions to shipping markets.
Overall, the container shipping market in 2025 will face an extremely unpredictable environment. The uncertainty of the Trump era, geopolitical shifts and the unreliability of government information combine to create this complex picture. Market participants need to assess risks more carefully and respond flexibly to possible changes.
Even leaving aside the geopolitics of the United States, the shipping market in 2025 is already challenging. The resolution of the Red Sea crisis will directly affect route selection and freight rates. If the crisis continues, shipping capacity around Africa will remain tight, keeping freight rates relatively high; Once the crisis is resolved, the supply chain will undergo major adjustments, European ports may face severe congestion, and then the market may have overcapacity, resulting in a sharp decline in spot prices in the short term, increasing the operating risk of carriers.
The Trump administration's actions, especially the rapid changes in tariff policy, have further exacerbated market uncertainty. The frequent adjustments and unpredictability of tariff policies make it difficult for U.S. importers and exporters to plan their supply chains, adding additional costs. There is a fundamental error in Trump's understanding of tariffs and value-added taxes, which leads to a lack of rational basis for policy decisions and further reduces policy predictability.
In addition, geopolitical factors are also affecting the shipping market. The situation in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as diplomatic developments between the United States and countries like Panama, could have a direct or indirect impact on the shipping market. In particular, possible actions by the Trump administration, such as changing the status of Gaza or influencing Panama Canal access policies, could cause significant disruptions to shipping markets.
Overall, the container shipping market in 2025 will face an extremely unpredictable environment. The uncertainty of the Trump era, geopolitical shifts and the unreliability of government information combine to create this complex picture. Market participants need to assess risks more carefully and respond flexibly to possible changes.
