Freight rates in West America are lower than cost prices and may rebound in April
Recently, the global container freight rate index has fallen for ten consecutive weeks, and the four major routes have shown a downward trend. The latest edition of the Shanghai Container Export Freight Index (SCFI) was released on the 21st, the index has fallen to 1,292.75 points, down 26.59 points from the previous week, the decline narrowed from 8.14% last week to 2.01% this week, the South American line fell particularly significantly, as high as 13.62%, and the United States West freight has been lower than the cost price. The European line is hovering around the cost price, and the overall freight market is still in a depressed state.
Industry insiders pointed out that the current US line is brewing price increases, but the specific increase and whether the successful implementation of price increases need to be further observed. Although the strength of support remains to be seen, the recent decline in freight rates has narrowed, and although the trend is still depressed, it has shown some signs of stability. At present, the key lies in the recovery time of Asian exports to Europe and the United States, the logistics industry expects that in the case of normal demand gradually increasing, the volume of goods is expected to pick up in April, and the price will gradually return to stability.
In addition, factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the subsequent development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to have an impact on the freight market. At the same time, the crisis in the Middle East Red Sea region continues to ferment, and the global cargo route has to go around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in tight ship scheduling. As soon as shipments pick up, the tension will push up freight rates further. However, the announcement by the Houthis that they will resume attacks on Israeli-related ships passing through the Red Sea and other waters has increased the uncertainty of shipping companies returning to the Red Sea and also poses a potential threat to the freight market.
Despite the challenges, shipping lines remain firm on North American and European routes in April, with plans to increase rates in response to rising costs and market changes. As the situation of shippers ready to ship gradually clear, the demand for goods is expected to gradually increase. In addition, due to the market downturn in February and March, the container industry has expanded the reduction measures. Under the effect of this reduction in flights and increased cargo volume, the airlines' determination to increase freight rates in April remains unchanged.
Although some shipping companies plan to raise freight in April, at present, the actual transaction price in the first week of April still continues the offer at the end of March, and the freight price has not risen and is still maintained. In particular, the online quotes of shipping companies such as Maersk, as well as the quotes of other shipping companies such as MSC and ONE are the same as the quotations at the end of March. MSC and MSK offers continue until Week 14 and ONE until week 15.
The industry speculated that with the shipping company's attitude to the North American route in April, the upcoming spot freight rate or will follow the bottom rebound. However, whether the specific situation can rise successfully, ultimately depends on the performance of the quantity of goods, let us wait and see.
SCFI Rates:
Shanghai to Europe freight 1306 USD /TEU, down 36 USD, down 2.68% week;
Shanghai to Mediterranean freight 2195 US dollars /TEU, down 100 US dollars, weekly down 4.36%;
Shanghai to the west of the United States freight 1872 US dollars /FEU, down 93 US dollars, down 4.73% week;
Shanghai to the United States East freight 2866 US dollars /FEU, down 111 US dollars, down 3.73% week;
Persian Gulf shipping rate of $1,059 per box, up $83, a weekly increase of 8.5%;
South American route (Santos) per box freight of $1680, down $265, week down 13.62%;
Australian and New Zealand shipping rate of $755 per box, up $20, a weekly increase of 2.7%;
Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight rate of $446 per box, the same as the previous period.
In terms of near-ocean lines, the Far East to Kansai, Japan, the Far East to Southeast Asia, and the Far East to South Korea per TEU is the same as the previous phase. As for the Far East to Japan Kanto per TEU increased by $2 with the previous period.
Industry insiders pointed out that the current US line is brewing price increases, but the specific increase and whether the successful implementation of price increases need to be further observed. Although the strength of support remains to be seen, the recent decline in freight rates has narrowed, and although the trend is still depressed, it has shown some signs of stability. At present, the key lies in the recovery time of Asian exports to Europe and the United States, the logistics industry expects that in the case of normal demand gradually increasing, the volume of goods is expected to pick up in April, and the price will gradually return to stability.
In addition, factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the subsequent development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to have an impact on the freight market. At the same time, the crisis in the Middle East Red Sea region continues to ferment, and the global cargo route has to go around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in tight ship scheduling. As soon as shipments pick up, the tension will push up freight rates further. However, the announcement by the Houthis that they will resume attacks on Israeli-related ships passing through the Red Sea and other waters has increased the uncertainty of shipping companies returning to the Red Sea and also poses a potential threat to the freight market.
Despite the challenges, shipping lines remain firm on North American and European routes in April, with plans to increase rates in response to rising costs and market changes. As the situation of shippers ready to ship gradually clear, the demand for goods is expected to gradually increase. In addition, due to the market downturn in February and March, the container industry has expanded the reduction measures. Under the effect of this reduction in flights and increased cargo volume, the airlines' determination to increase freight rates in April remains unchanged.
Although some shipping companies plan to raise freight in April, at present, the actual transaction price in the first week of April still continues the offer at the end of March, and the freight price has not risen and is still maintained. In particular, the online quotes of shipping companies such as Maersk, as well as the quotes of other shipping companies such as MSC and ONE are the same as the quotations at the end of March. MSC and MSK offers continue until Week 14 and ONE until week 15.
The industry speculated that with the shipping company's attitude to the North American route in April, the upcoming spot freight rate or will follow the bottom rebound. However, whether the specific situation can rise successfully, ultimately depends on the performance of the quantity of goods, let us wait and see.
SCFI Rates:
Shanghai to Europe freight 1306 USD /TEU, down 36 USD, down 2.68% week;
Shanghai to Mediterranean freight 2195 US dollars /TEU, down 100 US dollars, weekly down 4.36%;
Shanghai to the west of the United States freight 1872 US dollars /FEU, down 93 US dollars, down 4.73% week;
Shanghai to the United States East freight 2866 US dollars /FEU, down 111 US dollars, down 3.73% week;
Persian Gulf shipping rate of $1,059 per box, up $83, a weekly increase of 8.5%;
South American route (Santos) per box freight of $1680, down $265, week down 13.62%;
Australian and New Zealand shipping rate of $755 per box, up $20, a weekly increase of 2.7%;
Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight rate of $446 per box, the same as the previous period.
In terms of near-ocean lines, the Far East to Kansai, Japan, the Far East to Southeast Asia, and the Far East to South Korea per TEU is the same as the previous phase. As for the Far East to Japan Kanto per TEU increased by $2 with the previous period.
