Freight rates in the global air market have been rising recently, especially as shippers rush goods ahead of a possible trade war and the removal of minimum duty-free allowances in the United States. This increase has been particularly pronounced in the past few weeks, as transport costs have not subsided despite volatile and complex market conditions.

According to the TAC Index, the Baltic Air Freight Index rose 7.1 per cent in the four weeks to March 31, and 5.1 per cent year-on-year. This strong performance, compared with last year due to the outbreak of e-commerce pushed up air freight rates, is particularly prominent. TAC editor Neil Wilson pointed out that the combination of high freight rates and lower fuel costs appears to be helping airlines improve their profit margins.

Some analysts believe that the main reason for the recent increase in freight rates, especially in the past two to three weeks, is due to a large number of goods leaving China to finish shipping before the possible implementation of new tariffs in the United States. Departures from Hong Kong and Shanghai rose 6.3 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively, with Shanghai registering a year-on-year increase of 3.4 per cent. However, Wilson warned that with the new tariffs coming into effect on April 2, future trade volumes could be affected and freight rates could fall with them. In fact, some people in the industry have begun to notice that from the beginning of this week, the spot price has been loosened, whether it continues to fall remains to be seen.

In addition to tariffs, Freightos' head of research warned that on May 2, the United States will remove minimum tax allowances for Chinese imports, which will further trigger volatility in the air freight market. He noted that there have been multiple reports of Air service agreements (BSA) being cancelled from China to the United States, charter flights being cancelled, airlines shifting capacity to other markets, and air traffic is expected to decline as e-commerce demand declines.

Levine predicts that in the next few weeks, the air freight market will see a "final rush of demand" that will push rates higher, but as May 2 approaches, volumes and freight rates from China to the United States are likely to slide sharply. The capacity being reallocated could have a knock-on effect on other routes, depressing overall freight rates.

Brinkley Chan, an industry consultant, pointed out that while e-commerce continues to grow globally, China's cost advantage in this area is gradually disappearing, and some production may move to other regions, such as Europe and Southeast Asia. The change could have an impact on freight activity, which is expected to be visible as early as May or June.

For the air freight industry, the continued growth of e-commerce demand may be a key factor to support freight rates and avoid a complete collapse in freight rates. TAC also said that certain market trends have gained enough momentum that they are likely to continue to drive the air freight market in different ways, regardless of changes in tariffs and trade barriers.

Overall, the future of the air freight market remains uncertain, and as May approaches, sharp fluctuations in transportation demand could have a profound impact on freight rates. For enterprises engaged in cross-border transportation, making good predictions and flexible adjustments in this process will be the key to responding to market changes.