The proportion of old ships being dismantled has decreased, and shipowners are more willing to continue operating old ships
Despite multiple predictions that the "storm" of container ship scrapping is coming, so far, this scene has not materialized.
According to Alphaliner's detailed data, MSC dismantled five container ships in the first half of the year, with a total capacity of almost 12,000 TEU, which accounted for about a quarter of total dismantling sales.
At the same time, companies such as AP Moller-Maersk, Danaos Corp and CSAV are also involved in the dismantling of the ship. However, in the first half of the year, only 34 container ships with a total capacity of 48,600 TEU were dismantled and sold, which is obviously less than the 77,000 TEU in the same period in 2023.
Braemar's statistics further show that the total capacity of ships dismantled in the first half of this year was 57,000TEU, which represents only 0.2% of the global trading fleet.
It is worth mentioning that according to Alphaliner's data, the majority of scrap vessels sold in the first half of the year were smaller vessels of less than 1,500TEU. Only three ships over 3,000 TEU were sold for recycling: They are the MSC Rossella (3,424 TEU), built in 1993, the Jeppesen Maersk (3,003 TEU), built in 2001, and the largest container ship dismantled so far this year, the Ever Uranus (5,652 TEU), built in 1999.
Braemar added that the average size and age of the ships dismantled were 1,678 TEU and 27.5 years respectively. In its quarterly market outlook, the shipbroking firm provides an in-depth analysis: "Container ship dismantling is slowly moving forward due to improving and continuing increases in earnings and asset values. "We do not expect container ship dismantling to accelerate again until the situation in the Red Sea becomes clearer."
Braemar further predicted: "Given the relatively small number of container ships dismantled over the past three years, we foresee a catch-up period, especially once the situation in the Red Sea is resolved."
Alphaliner's forecast suggests that dismantling volumes will reach 120,000 TEU in 2024 and could soar to 250,000TEU next year, although this is still a far cry from the record 655,000 TEU dismantled in 2016.
Analysts have a deep interpretation of this phenomenon: "At present, overcapacity is almost zero, and unexpectedly strong freight demand is also one of the important factors driving this market boom." As a result, shipowners and carriers prefer to continue operating older vessels on extremely profitable terms, rather than breaking them up, despite rising dismantling prices."