Shipping companies cancelled a large number of Asia-Europe and Asia-America export voyages ahead of the National Day holiday due to fears of plunging freight rates. "More" outages are expected this year during the critical weeks of weak demand during the off-season. A UK-based NVOCC said it had received an offer of $4,500 per 40 feet from China to Southampton.

Ocean shipping lines cancelled a number of Asian exports to Europe and Asia to the US ahead of the National Day holiday in early October amid fears of another slump in container spot rates.

One carrier insider predicted that there would be "many more" outages in the critical weeks of weak demand during the off-season to avoid a repeat of the rate wars; And believe that as long as the Red Sea diversion continues, the market maintains the current situation, I believe that the strategy can smoothly through the market fluctuations.

Delury's latest cancellation assessment shows that in the five weeks from week 36 (September 2 to September 8) to Week 40 (September 30 to October 6), a total of 696 scheduled voyages have been announced on the major trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asian trade routes to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, with 68 cancellations announced, representing a cancellation rate of 10%. Specifically, trans-Pacific eastbound routes had the most cancellations at 51 percent, Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean at 28 percent, and trans-Atlantic westbound routes at 21 percent.

At THE alliance level, THE Alliance canceled 17 voyages, the Ocean Alliance and 2M Alliance canceled 12 and 10 voyages respectively, and non-alliance shipping companies canceled 29 voyages. Maersk said in the announcement that in view of the expected reduction in demand, the company is adjusting the service network to maintain balance. MSC, its 2M alliance partner, has also announced that it will adjust capacity in Weeks 39 and 40 in response to expectations of slower demand.

Delury said sea carriers may need to implement additional disruptions as spot rates continue to fall and demand continues to be weak ahead of the Golden Week holiday, which typically sees a surge in orders before factories close for a week. Shippers and Bcos should have contingency plans in place to mitigate the impact of any last-minute flight cancellations on their shipments.

While spot freight rates on Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific eastbound routes have shown a steady downward trend recently, there is no evidence that this is a collapse in freight rates caused by significant price cuts by major carriers. Indeed, according to the Delury World Container Composite Index (WCI), freight rates between Asia and Northern Europe are still 350 per cent higher than a year ago and, although down slightly this week (3 per cent), remain high at $7,204 per 40ft.

Still, a short-term freight quote from Ningbo to Felixstowe, obtained by overseas media this week, is $5,000 per 40 feet, valid until September; Another UK-based NVOCs said it had received an offer of $4,500 per 40ft from China to Southampton, with further cuts likely as the alliance restructuring proceeds.

Rates on trans-Pacific routes have also remained stable, with spot rates to the US west coast falling just 2 per cent this week to $6,248 per 40ft, while those on the US east Coast also fell 2 per cent to $8,591 per 40ft, according to WCI data. Despite the decline, freight rates from Asia to the West and East coasts of the United States remained high, up 180 percent and 150 percent, respectively, compared to the same period last year.

It is worth noting that while shipping lines have adopted capacity management strategies on trans-Pacific routes in response to market changes, the potential threat of strikes at U.S. East Coast terminals and the introduction of new import tariffs will continue to support rates. Despite weak demand and the potential for some competitive pressure from the entry of new smaller carriers into the market, freight rates have generally remained stable.

Elsewhere, spot prices for the westbound transatlantic route from Northern Europe to the US east coast remained steady at about $2,000 per 40ft. Exporters are facing a time-tight challenge to make shipments as quickly as possible in response to possible strike action at East Coast ports.