Freight rates or will rise, Trump's election triggered the rush peak of the US line
After Trump was elected president of the United States, the shipping market is expected to increase taxes or rush to the United States line, pushing up freight rates. Recently, the price of shipping futures has risen in the near month contract, and shipping stocks have also risen sharply, but experts remind us to pay attention to the subsequent actual situation. Container index (European line) futures near strong far weak, the market is concerned about booking demand and shipping company trends.
In recent days, with the news of Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the market has seen a series of fluctuations. The industry generally expects that due to the possibility of tax increases, the shipping market may usher in the peak of rush shipments on the United States line, which will push up freight rates.
Container index (European line) futures, recently showed a pattern of near strong far weak. At the close of November 8, the main EC2502 contract price rose 3.74% from the previous day's settlement price. However, the far-month contract fell sharply, with the EC2508 contract falling as much as 10.99%. This year, the container index (European line) futures wide volatility, the first half of the Red Sea crisis disturbance rose rapidly, rose more than twice. But from the beginning of July to the middle of September, the futures price suddenly turned downward, once more than half. However, since late September, the futures price has returned to a relatively high level.
For the recent polarization of the pan, South China futures overseas market analyst Yu Junchen pointed out that this may be related to the potential tariff problems brought about by the US election. In addition, he also mentioned that Trump's statement on the situation in the Middle East may also have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent development. In the short term, the possibility of adjustment is greater. If there is a subsequent pullback adjustment in the front-month contract, the possibility of upside again still exists. In the future, we need to pay attention to the actual booking demand, as well as the trend of the shipping company, including whether the freight is really raised again in December, and the direction of the current price.
Lei Yue, head of the shipping group of Haitong Futures Research Institute, also said that the trading logic in recent months is mainly the market's expectations for price increases in December. Despite the weakening of spot freight rates, the disk is still expected to be more substantial, and the overall mood is upward. Trump's election has also catalyzed some rush trading logic, although even if there is rush on the US line, the actual possibility of spillover to the European line is relatively limited.
However, the distant month is affected by geopolitical factors, and the subsequent political situation in the Middle East may change with the governing philosophy and demands of the new US President. The market more pricing potential detour end and resumption, so far there is also a large decline.
In terms of shipping stocks, benefiting from the shock of freight rates, shipping companies' share prices have been eye-catching this year. As of November 8, the share prices of CoSCO Sea Control, Evergreen Shipping, Cosco Haite, Yangming Shipping and other companies have risen more than 40% during the year. Among them, COSCO Offshore Control increased by 66.15% during the year, ranking first.
In addition, as China's first shipping futures varieties-consolidated shipping index (European line) futures have been running steadily for a year. According to He Jun, deputy general manager of the previous exchange, in the first September of this year, the trading volume of the container index (European line) futures far exceeded the contracts of other overseas futures exchanges. With spot and futures prices rising five times in one year and volatility three times that of general commodities, the shipping index futures effectively withstand and resolve extreme market risks.
The Trump effect may have a certain impact on the shipping market in the short term, but the long-term trend still needs to pay attention to the development of the actual situation. Investors should keep rational analysis and prudent decision-making.
In recent days, with the news of Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the market has seen a series of fluctuations. The industry generally expects that due to the possibility of tax increases, the shipping market may usher in the peak of rush shipments on the United States line, which will push up freight rates.
Container index (European line) futures, recently showed a pattern of near strong far weak. At the close of November 8, the main EC2502 contract price rose 3.74% from the previous day's settlement price. However, the far-month contract fell sharply, with the EC2508 contract falling as much as 10.99%. This year, the container index (European line) futures wide volatility, the first half of the Red Sea crisis disturbance rose rapidly, rose more than twice. But from the beginning of July to the middle of September, the futures price suddenly turned downward, once more than half. However, since late September, the futures price has returned to a relatively high level.
For the recent polarization of the pan, South China futures overseas market analyst Yu Junchen pointed out that this may be related to the potential tariff problems brought about by the US election. In addition, he also mentioned that Trump's statement on the situation in the Middle East may also have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent development. In the short term, the possibility of adjustment is greater. If there is a subsequent pullback adjustment in the front-month contract, the possibility of upside again still exists. In the future, we need to pay attention to the actual booking demand, as well as the trend of the shipping company, including whether the freight is really raised again in December, and the direction of the current price.
Lei Yue, head of the shipping group of Haitong Futures Research Institute, also said that the trading logic in recent months is mainly the market's expectations for price increases in December. Despite the weakening of spot freight rates, the disk is still expected to be more substantial, and the overall mood is upward. Trump's election has also catalyzed some rush trading logic, although even if there is rush on the US line, the actual possibility of spillover to the European line is relatively limited.
However, the distant month is affected by geopolitical factors, and the subsequent political situation in the Middle East may change with the governing philosophy and demands of the new US President. The market more pricing potential detour end and resumption, so far there is also a large decline.
In terms of shipping stocks, benefiting from the shock of freight rates, shipping companies' share prices have been eye-catching this year. As of November 8, the share prices of CoSCO Sea Control, Evergreen Shipping, Cosco Haite, Yangming Shipping and other companies have risen more than 40% during the year. Among them, COSCO Offshore Control increased by 66.15% during the year, ranking first.
In addition, as China's first shipping futures varieties-consolidated shipping index (European line) futures have been running steadily for a year. According to He Jun, deputy general manager of the previous exchange, in the first September of this year, the trading volume of the container index (European line) futures far exceeded the contracts of other overseas futures exchanges. With spot and futures prices rising five times in one year and volatility three times that of general commodities, the shipping index futures effectively withstand and resolve extreme market risks.
The Trump effect may have a certain impact on the shipping market in the short term, but the long-term trend still needs to pay attention to the development of the actual situation. Investors should keep rational analysis and prudent decision-making.
