The Houthis have lifted a "ban" on shipping through the southern Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, but the situation for international shipping remains fraught with risks, security experts said.
The Houthi attack on the merchant ship was justified by the group as a move to support Hamas and punish Israel for its assault on Gaza. The Houthis' pledge to end attacks on shipping is contingent on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which poses a risk to ships if either side violates it, actual or perceived.
The ban on Israeli-owned and Israeli-flagged vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the surrounding area remains in effect, but the ban on ships affiliated with Israel's Allies and ships calling at Israeli ports has been lifted. The Houthis have said Israeli ships will be allowed to pass once all stages of the peace deal are completed.
"Houthi military action in response to violations of Israel's ceasefire remains possible and is likely to affect Israeli-affiliated shipments first," Amberry noted in the threat notice.
"The Houthis have not specified how they intend to prevent the crossing of ships owned or flagged by Israel. The ship's attack or flash point escalation was assessed to have led to Israeli air strikes against the Houthis." Ambrey said.
The Houthis warned that the United States or Britain would lead to a resurgence of attacks against American and British-affiliated ships. The two countries have targeted Houthi military assets in Yemen to degrade the group's capabilities and limit threats to civilian shipping. Military aggression by the army against its territory
"The maritime industry should take the latest Houthi claims with a grain of salt," the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) said in its latest weekly report. "JMIC assessed that while progress is being made towards a peace deal and the Houthi statement that only" Israeli-owned/flagged companies will continue to be targeted, "the maritime industry should remain resilient in maritime security and risk mitigation efforts."
With all parties involved preparing to retaliate to violate the ceasefire, ships in the area could soon become the target of a rapid escalation of hostilities.
"There is a possibility that the United States could launch air strikes in response to military action against merchant ships or naval assets, thereby increasing the risk to U.S. - and British-owned shipping," Ambrey said.
S&p Global Market Intelligence expects the early stages of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in the current tense to resume Houthi attacks on Israel, opening the door to transport attacks.
"At the time of the ceasefire, the Houthis may reduce the frequency of attacks on Red Sea transport, but the ceasefire is likely to extend beyond its initial phase," it said.
A complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza is a provision of the agreed ceasefire, but S&P Global Market Intelligence does not expect this to happen completely. "The Houthis could use this as a justification to continue missile and drone attacks on Israel."
The report added that the resumption of Houthi attacks on Israel would trigger a military response from the United States and the United Kingdom, thus making the shipping industry once again a target for the Houthis.
"If the Houthis resume attacks on Israel, U.S.-led coalition strikes against the Houthis are likely to continue, triggering renewed Houthi targeting of U.S. and British-affiliated vessels, which poses a serious risk to all transit vessels over the next 12 months due to uncertainty over target selection," S&P Global Market Intelligence said.
Ambrey said that if the ceasefire holds, any deliveries to the area would be gradual and conditional on there being no further escalation by the parties involved.