These are turbulent times for the container supply chain industry, which is filled not only with stale maritime cliches, but also with time-honored truths. But it may be premature to say that the industry faces significant headwinds.

The latest warning came from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which, in parallel with its investigation into China's maritime operations, announced a series of steep port fees designed to penalize Chinese ships and shipbuilding while promoting American ships and shipyards.

The proposed fee is up to $1.5 million per call at a U.S. port for each Chinese-owned vessel with a maximum capacity of 24,000 20-foot equivalent units (industry standard units), or approximately 12,000 actual 40-foot containers. That equates to $125 per container for a single stop, or less than 2.5% of the $5,000 nominal spot price of a full container on an eastbound trans-Pacific route from Asia to the West Coast of the United States - for Wal-Mart (NYSE: That's hardly a big deal for bulk shippers like WMT, which a quick Google search reveals shipped about 16 million containers in 2023.

With container ships calling at 280,000 U.S. ports in the second half of 2023 alone, according to the United Nations Office of Trade and Development, the theoretical amounts generated by port fees are truly staggering, even for ships with capacities below super-capacity. How much of these costs can be passed on to shippers, and for importers, how much can be passed on to consumers, remains an open question.

Port charges vary, and some call them taxes and fees, and apply not only to Chinese ship operator COsco, the world's fourth-largest container shipping line, which also owns Orient Overseas Container Line, but also to liner companies registered in other countries, even if there is only one Chinese-made vessel. This makes it difficult for some operators to disguise ship ownership through shell companies and paper records, similar to the "dark fleet" of crude oil tankers that operate in defiance of global sanctions.

But the big container lines are by no means a shadowy fleet. The nature of alliances and ship sharing agreements constitutes a complex web of cooperation that will feel the impact of port fees in ways not explicitly spelled out in the USTR proposal.

For the first time, shippers may ask the largest carriers where their ships are built. A carrier with 40% of its fleet made in China has a different cost structure than a competitor with only 5% of its fleet made in China. That could put pressure on the former to operate more efficient flights and most likely reduce the number of calls at U.S. ports.

Mediterranean Shipping Co., the world's largest container shipping company, has been heavily ordering ships from Chinese shipyards, as has France's CMA CGM, and Maersk (OTC: Maersk), according to reports. AMKBY is also interested in ordering ships. None of the companies immediately responded to requests for comment.

Major U.S. container gateway ports could see a drop in volumes if liner companies reconfigure some of their routes to call in Mexico or Canada, but second-tier ports could be hardest hit if carriers decide the volumes aren't worth the $500,000 fee and cancel stops.

Major shipping companies have been evaluating services in response to the Trump administration's 10 percent tariffs on Chinese exports and 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products, which are set to take effect on March 4. Port fees could further hamper US-Mexico trade.

The imposition of port fees comes at a critical time for carriers as rate negotiations between carriers and shippers are ongoing.

The Red Sea route is still in crisis. Recently, the Navy intercepted two ocean-going shipments of missile parts that might have been destined for the Houthis in Yemen. Houthi attacks on merchant ships forced most container routes to shift from the region to long-haul routes to the Horn of Africa in 2024. This has led to supply chain capacity shortages and higher freight rates. The reopening of the Suez Canal route, which links Asia with the Mediterranean, Europe and the East Coast of the United States, could cut those journeys by 14 days but also push down freight rates.

At the recent New York Transportation Club annual dinner, an executive from a major bulk shipping company told FreightWaves that contract container rates on some European long-haul routes have fallen below $1,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit.

Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabe, an Egyptian, was quoted by Reuters on Sunday as saying that 47 ships had been diverted from the Cape of Good Hope to the Suez Canal since early February.

New ships scheduled to launch this year could also add to the overcapacity problem, even as shipping companies grapple with the problems posed by the new alliances. It is not uncommon for airlines to cancel flights to adjust operations. Shipping companies are also likely to balance capacity by scrapping ships.