The latest edition of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was released on the 28th, ending a 10-week downward trend and beginning to rebound. The SCFI index rose 4.96 per cent, or 64.13 points, to 1356.88. In terms of the four major ocean routes, the United States East, United States West and Europe routes have increased.
Industry insiders pointed out that because the freight rate of the European and American routes has been close to the cost price, the US line announced a price increase on April 1, which led to a rebound in short-term freight rates. At present, the freight rate remains at the level of $1,650 in the West of the United States, $2,650 in the East of the United States, and $1,800-1,900 in Europe. While some carriers on European routes froze rate increases in early April, some are expected to implement them after April 15.
The cargo volume of the North American route gradually recovered, and the freight rate took the lead to stop the decline and rebound. The freight rate from the Far East to the West reached 2,177 US dollars /FEU, an increase of 305 US dollars or 16.29% compared with the previous period; The freight rate from the Far East to the Eastern United States reached $3,194 /FEU, an increase of $328, or 11.44%, from the previous period.
In contrast, the performance of European routes has remained relatively weak this week. Freight rates from the Far East to Europe reached $1,318 /TEU, up $12 from the previous period, a weekly increase of only 0.91%; Fares from the Far East to the Mediterranean were $2,076 /TEU, down $119 or 5.42% from the previous period. However, the industry expects that with the improvement of the loading rate of large ships and the recovery of cargo volume, the freight rate is expected to improve in April.
At present, the freight rate of consolidated transportation in Europe and the United States is at the cost price. U.S. shipping lines have set an increase of $800 to $1,000 per container on April 1, but some alliance ships plan to raise only about $400. European routes will remain at current rates until mid-April.
Specifically, the current freight rate for each large box on the European line is between $1700-1900, while the freight rate for each large box in the United States is between $1600-1700. Freight forwarding companies pointed out that different alliances in April 1 on the US line increase is also different, the plan to raise to 2,100-2,500 US dollars. The freight rate of the United States East will rise from the current $2,650 to $3,100-3,550. Shipping giant MSC froze rates for a few large customers until mid-April. However, it remains to be seen whether the freight rate can be stabilized after the rise.
According to foreign media JOC news, the long-term contract price of the United States route has been determined to rise this year. A number of shipping lines have signed long-term contracts with U.S. retail giants for the West U.S. route, with prices up 15% to 20% from last year, reaching about $1,600 to $1,800 per 40-foot container. At the same time, freight forwarders say that large shippers (Bcos) may be able to secure contracts for about $1,400 to $1,600. For U.S.-East routes, long-term contracts add about $1,000 to that.
The current spot price for the US-West route is about $1,600 to $1,700. This means that shipping companies are under enormous pressure to raise prices in April, and only successful price increases can support long-term contract prices. The market is rumored to raise prices by about $800 to $1,000 on April 1, but considering market competition factors, this plan may still be variable and need to wait until March 31 to become more clear.
Once the long-term contract price of very large customers is determined, the contract price of large and medium-sized direct customers and freight forwarders will also rise in turn, which is expected to increase by about $100 to $150. Originally, shipping companies had higher expectations for long-term contract prices, hoping to reach $2,000 on the US-West route and $3,000 on the US-East route. However, due to the tariff war, the United States plans to impose port docking fees on Chinese ships, the United States consumer confidence fell to a four-year low in March and other uncertainties, and spot prices continued to decline, shipping companies have finally lowered long-term contract prices.
Freight forwarding industry insiders pointed out that this week due to the end of the month and the end of the season effect, the booking rate has rebounded. Going into April, shipping lines are expected to take more aggressive measures to support freight rates and support long-term contract prices, ensuring that long-term contract prices this year are 15 to 20 percent or more higher than last year. Next, the contract price of large and medium-sized direct customers and freight forwarders will become the main battlefield where shipping companies need to adhere to freight rates.
SCFI Rates: Freight from Shanghai to Europe is $1,318 /TEU, up $12, or 0.92%; Shanghai to Mediterranean freight rate 2076 US dollars /TEU, down 119 US dollars, week down 5.42%; Freight from Shanghai to the West of the United States is 2,177 US dollars /FEU, up 305 US dollars, or 16.29%; Shanghai to the United States East freight 3194 US dollars /FEU, up 328 US dollars, an increase of 11.44%; Persian Gulf shipping rate of 1,188 US dollars per box, up 129 US dollars, a weekly increase of 12.18%; South American route (Santos) per box freight of $2,172, up $49, or 2.31%; Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight of $433 per box, down $13, down 2.91% week.
In terms of the offshore line, the Far East to Kansai, Japan was 319 dollars, up 15 dollars, or 4.93%; From the Far East to Kanto, Japan, $324, up $14, or 4.52%; Far East to South Korea rose $4, or 2.92%, to $141.