Biden's withdrawal from the election and Trump's second term in power may deal a double blow to the shipping industry
The best melon in the past two years is the topic of two elderly people in the United States competing for a position, not long ago, Trump just experienced an assassination, although injured but more popular, when everyone speculated that Trump would act, 81-year-old US President Joe Biden issued a formal withdrawal from the presidential election message through his personal social media account. At the same time, he said he would nominate and fully support the current Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate for president.
LARS JENSEN, analyst and founder of VESPUCCI MARINE, said in a column that only a few months away from the US presidential election, January 2025 or will usher in the second term of the Trump administration, which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the container shipping market. The position of Trump and his political forces has focused on two main areas: trade tariffs and military isolationism, both of which pose significant challenges and opportunities for the shipping industry.
Just during Trump's first term, which was also the point in time when the United States increased tariffs on China by the highest and most in history, various "SAO operations" to restrain China's development emerged in endlessly. So you can imagine what kind of decisions Trump will make in his second term.
It is true that Mexico has now become a bigger trading partner for the United States, but the reality is that the volume of containerized goods shipped from China to Mexico has skyrocketed to the point that carriers have introduced all sorts of new direct services from China to Mexico. In some cases, the shift from China to Southeast Asia is to Southeast Asian manufacturing owned by Chinese interests.
In March, Trump said that if he returned to the White House, he would impose a 100 percent tariff on cars made outside the United States. If the new Trump administration significantly raises trade tariffs, as Trump has suggested, the most likely primary outcome will be more shifts in the supply chain model described above. In addition to making imported goods more expensive in the U.S., depressing consumer spending and driving up inflation, the most likely outcome of an intensifying trade war will be a shift in supply chains that requires more work to be done by ships, ports, trucks and warehouses.
In addition, in terms of military isolationism, the Trump administration's withdrawal decisions, such as the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, reflect its position to reduce overseas military intervention. If this trend continues to the Red Sea region, it will directly affect the security of shipping in the region, lengthening transit times for European shippers and undermining the competitiveness of manufacturing in the Indian subcontinent.
The direct impact of the Red Sea conflict on U.S. shipping has been limited because goods from Asia to the United States travel mainly through the U.S. West Coast and the Panama Canal, but that has not prevented the Trump administration from using it as an excuse to reduce overseas military spending. However, the move will heighten European concerns about the safety of shipping in the Red Sea, prompting shippers to seek new solutions, while also opening up new opportunities for the shipping industry in regions such as Southeast Asia.
LARS JENSEN, analyst and founder of VESPUCCI MARINE, said in a column that only a few months away from the US presidential election, January 2025 or will usher in the second term of the Trump administration, which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the container shipping market. The position of Trump and his political forces has focused on two main areas: trade tariffs and military isolationism, both of which pose significant challenges and opportunities for the shipping industry.
Just during Trump's first term, which was also the point in time when the United States increased tariffs on China by the highest and most in history, various "SAO operations" to restrain China's development emerged in endlessly. So you can imagine what kind of decisions Trump will make in his second term.
It is true that Mexico has now become a bigger trading partner for the United States, but the reality is that the volume of containerized goods shipped from China to Mexico has skyrocketed to the point that carriers have introduced all sorts of new direct services from China to Mexico. In some cases, the shift from China to Southeast Asia is to Southeast Asian manufacturing owned by Chinese interests.
In March, Trump said that if he returned to the White House, he would impose a 100 percent tariff on cars made outside the United States. If the new Trump administration significantly raises trade tariffs, as Trump has suggested, the most likely primary outcome will be more shifts in the supply chain model described above. In addition to making imported goods more expensive in the U.S., depressing consumer spending and driving up inflation, the most likely outcome of an intensifying trade war will be a shift in supply chains that requires more work to be done by ships, ports, trucks and warehouses.
In addition, in terms of military isolationism, the Trump administration's withdrawal decisions, such as the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, reflect its position to reduce overseas military intervention. If this trend continues to the Red Sea region, it will directly affect the security of shipping in the region, lengthening transit times for European shippers and undermining the competitiveness of manufacturing in the Indian subcontinent.
The direct impact of the Red Sea conflict on U.S. shipping has been limited because goods from Asia to the United States travel mainly through the U.S. West Coast and the Panama Canal, but that has not prevented the Trump administration from using it as an excuse to reduce overseas military spending. However, the move will heighten European concerns about the safety of shipping in the Red Sea, prompting shippers to seek new solutions, while also opening up new opportunities for the shipping industry in regions such as Southeast Asia.
