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Shipping space is tight, and freight rates on major routes continue to rise
Since late September, the main contract price of the container shipping index (European line) has fluctuated sharply and welcomed a sharp rise. At present, the shipping market is tight, and a number of shipping companies have announced price increases. The future market trend is affected by multiple factors such as negotiations between shipping companies and cargo owners, global economic and trade policy changes.

According to Xinhua Finance reported on the 23rd, since late September, the main contract price volatility of the freight index (European line) has significantly increased, and it has risen sharply after undergoing rapid adjustment, rising as high as 1,400 points in nearly a month, successfully breaking through the 3,200 mark.


Freight rates on major routes continued to rise


Industry analysts pointed out that the rally in the futures market in late September was mainly affected by two factors. On the one hand, it formed a resonance effect with the commodity market as a whole before the October 11th holiday, although this factor showed a relatively large correction after the holiday; On the other hand, in the second and third weeks of October, major shipping companies issued price increases that took effect in early November, which had a significant impact on the market.

At the same time, the shipping market is once again tight. A number of industry insiders said that the shipping market has indeed turned recently, and the capacity of many routes is tight, although it has not yet reached the degree of stock explosion, but if the shipping company further increases prices, the risk of stock explosion will rise significantly.

According to a number of liner companies, the voyage at the end of October has been tight, especially in the direction of the United States line. At the same time, the spot freight rate of the European and American lines has also increased slightly from the beginning of October.

Industry insiders generally believe that the reason for this round of tight shipping space is mainly due to the shippers to rush to concentrate shipments before shipping companies increase prices, as well as the uncertainty of the outcome of the US election. In order to arrive before the Christmas and New Year holidays, some shippers chose to ship early, resulting in a surge in demand for shipping space at the end of October.

In addition, shipping companies announced an increase in freight rates for November, which further exacerbated the space squeeze. At present, the loading rate of the shipping space in early November is high, so the shipping company maintains the high price.

With Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Maersk, CMA and other shipping companies have issued price increase letters, the price increase trend in the container market has been very obvious. Maersk and CMA CGM are offering online price increases starting October 25 and October 27 respectively. At present, the price quoted in early November is overall in the range of $4100-4800 /FEU, but there is still some uncertainty about whether the price increase can be fully landed.


Space shortage


For the trend of the subsequent consolidation market, the industry believes that November-December will enter the critical period of annual contract negotiations. Shipping companies are likely to prop up prices by suspending flights and cutting cargo capacity, and each increase will lead to a sharp rise in the futures market. However, if the price rise is less than expected or falsified, the futures market will experience a sharp correction. The annual negotiation game between shipowners and cargo owners will become the main theme of the trend of consolidated shipping futures in the fourth quarter.

Some insiders said that for the follow-up trend of the price of the European line, it is necessary to observe the volume support in the second and third weeks of November. If the cargo volume is good, the container price may form a wave of upward trend. However, considering the pressure of capacity supply in December, the possibility of the overall increase exceeding the peak season in June and July is not high.

Overall, the container market will still face many uncertainties in the coming period of time. The game between shippers and shippers will continue to influence the market. At the same time, changes in the global economic situation and trade policies will also have a profound impact on the bulk transportation market.
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