Europe's economy is weak and freight rates continue to fall
Freight rates fell for five straight weeks. After the Lunar New Year, as the cargo volume has not yet picked up, the global container freight rate continued to decline. The latest issue of Shanghai Container export freight Index (SCFI) was released, the index fell 137.83 points to 1758.82 points from the previous week, the weekly decline reached 7.26%, the main four routes fell sharply, almost all routes fell.
Shipping industry insiders pointed out that the overall shipping market is currently affected by the double impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the weakening of shipment momentum after the holiday, the SCFI freight index is under obvious pressure, the global container freight is still in the off-season trend, and the freight rates of the four major routes are declining. Among them, the freight rate from the Far East to Europe and the Far East to the United States fell by more than 10%, and the freight rate from the Far East to the United States fell by $5,000, a decline of 12.11%.
After the factory has not fully resumed work, the lack of goods, resulting in Shanghai's export freight index SCFI fell for five consecutive weeks. According to the shipping company's notice of quotation, the freight rate of the European and American routes will continue to fall in the second half of February. The subsequent market needs to pay close attention to three variables: the strength of the domestic resumption of shipments, the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff policy, and the progress of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which will have an impact on cargo volumes and freight rates.
Specifically, in the current SCFI quotation, although the decline in European route freight has narrowed, it still reached 10.91%; The price declines on the Mediterranean, West and East routes widened to 7.28%, 9.87% and 12.11% respectively. It is worth noting that the Central and South American route (Manzanillo, Mexico) freight rose 26%, bucking the trend for two consecutive weeks; Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight also rose slightly by $3, the initial signs of stabilization.
A number of shipping companies and freight forwarders said that the Sino-US tariff trade war has accelerated the southbound movement of industrial supply chains and importer purchases, affecting the flow of goods. Southeast Asia and Mexico, as production-oriented countries, mainly import raw materials or semi-finished products from China for final assembly, and take the lead in resuming work after the holiday, supporting freight rates. Next week, the domestic is expected to fully resume work, and the resumption of shipments will become the focus of industry observation.
In addition, US President Donald Trump announced that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign trading partners, which will be implemented as soon as April 2. However, due to the lack of specific details and implementation timeline, the industry can only wait and see and respond flexibly.
Current rate and future rate outlook
On the European line, freight rates remain low due to the weak European economy. According to SCFI data, the current European freight rate has fallen to the lowest since 2024. Market rumors say that shipping companies are strengthening cabin control and plan to raise prices in March after resuming normal shipments; Hapag-lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM and other shipping companies have announced freight increases to $4,000 or more, but more shipping companies have not yet said anything and will watch shipments. Freight forwarders provide spot quotes show that the European line freight rate in the second half of February is about 2300 ~ 2600 US dollars.
Industry insiders expect that the current U.S.-West freight rate of about $3,200, the U.S.-East freight rate of about $4,100, the European freight rate of $2,300 to $2,600, such prices will continue until the end of February. The freight rate of the United States may further decline around Thursday this week, mainly because the factory has not fully resumed work, the volume of goods has not increased significantly, and it still needs to be observed. However, there was no sign of a significant increase in freight rates in March.
For Trump's tariff war, the industry stressed that its variability is difficult to deal with. If tariffs go up, manufacturers will have to raise prices. However, with the recovery of the global economy and the recovery of trade demand, the maritime and domestic trade logistics market is expected to gradually stabilize.
SCFI Rates:
Shanghai to Europe freight 1,608 US dollars /TEU, down 197 US dollars, down 10.91% week;
Shanghai to Mediterranean freight 2815 US dollars /TEU, down 221 US dollars, down 7.27% week;
Shanghai to the United States freight 3544 US dollars /FEU, down 388 US dollars, the week down 9.86%;
Shanghai to the United States East freight 4825 US dollars /FEU, down 665 US dollars, week down 12.11%;
Persian Gulf shipping rate of $1,144 per box, down $47, down 3.9% weekly;
South American route (Santos) freight rate of $3,359 per box, down $76, down 2.2% weekly;
Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight rate of $457 per box, up $3, or 0.66%.
In terms of the oceanic line, the Far East to Kansai, Japan, and the Far East to Kanto, Japan per TEU is the same as the previous phase; Far East to South Korea down $1 per TEU from the previous period.
Shipping industry insiders pointed out that the overall shipping market is currently affected by the double impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the weakening of shipment momentum after the holiday, the SCFI freight index is under obvious pressure, the global container freight is still in the off-season trend, and the freight rates of the four major routes are declining. Among them, the freight rate from the Far East to Europe and the Far East to the United States fell by more than 10%, and the freight rate from the Far East to the United States fell by $5,000, a decline of 12.11%.
After the factory has not fully resumed work, the lack of goods, resulting in Shanghai's export freight index SCFI fell for five consecutive weeks. According to the shipping company's notice of quotation, the freight rate of the European and American routes will continue to fall in the second half of February. The subsequent market needs to pay close attention to three variables: the strength of the domestic resumption of shipments, the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff policy, and the progress of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which will have an impact on cargo volumes and freight rates.
Specifically, in the current SCFI quotation, although the decline in European route freight has narrowed, it still reached 10.91%; The price declines on the Mediterranean, West and East routes widened to 7.28%, 9.87% and 12.11% respectively. It is worth noting that the Central and South American route (Manzanillo, Mexico) freight rose 26%, bucking the trend for two consecutive weeks; Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight also rose slightly by $3, the initial signs of stabilization.
A number of shipping companies and freight forwarders said that the Sino-US tariff trade war has accelerated the southbound movement of industrial supply chains and importer purchases, affecting the flow of goods. Southeast Asia and Mexico, as production-oriented countries, mainly import raw materials or semi-finished products from China for final assembly, and take the lead in resuming work after the holiday, supporting freight rates. Next week, the domestic is expected to fully resume work, and the resumption of shipments will become the focus of industry observation.
In addition, US President Donald Trump announced that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign trading partners, which will be implemented as soon as April 2. However, due to the lack of specific details and implementation timeline, the industry can only wait and see and respond flexibly.
Current rate and future rate outlook
On the European line, freight rates remain low due to the weak European economy. According to SCFI data, the current European freight rate has fallen to the lowest since 2024. Market rumors say that shipping companies are strengthening cabin control and plan to raise prices in March after resuming normal shipments; Hapag-lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM and other shipping companies have announced freight increases to $4,000 or more, but more shipping companies have not yet said anything and will watch shipments. Freight forwarders provide spot quotes show that the European line freight rate in the second half of February is about 2300 ~ 2600 US dollars.
Industry insiders expect that the current U.S.-West freight rate of about $3,200, the U.S.-East freight rate of about $4,100, the European freight rate of $2,300 to $2,600, such prices will continue until the end of February. The freight rate of the United States may further decline around Thursday this week, mainly because the factory has not fully resumed work, the volume of goods has not increased significantly, and it still needs to be observed. However, there was no sign of a significant increase in freight rates in March.
For Trump's tariff war, the industry stressed that its variability is difficult to deal with. If tariffs go up, manufacturers will have to raise prices. However, with the recovery of the global economy and the recovery of trade demand, the maritime and domestic trade logistics market is expected to gradually stabilize.
SCFI Rates:
Shanghai to Europe freight 1,608 US dollars /TEU, down 197 US dollars, down 10.91% week;
Shanghai to Mediterranean freight 2815 US dollars /TEU, down 221 US dollars, down 7.27% week;
Shanghai to the United States freight 3544 US dollars /FEU, down 388 US dollars, the week down 9.86%;
Shanghai to the United States East freight 4825 US dollars /FEU, down 665 US dollars, week down 12.11%;
Persian Gulf shipping rate of $1,144 per box, down $47, down 3.9% weekly;
South American route (Santos) freight rate of $3,359 per box, down $76, down 2.2% weekly;
Southeast Asia route (Singapore) freight rate of $457 per box, up $3, or 0.66%.
In terms of the oceanic line, the Far East to Kansai, Japan, and the Far East to Kanto, Japan per TEU is the same as the previous phase; Far East to South Korea down $1 per TEU from the previous period.
