In the latest round of tariffs set to take effect on April 2, the United States will impose tariffs on steel and aluminum and a 25 percent import tariff on complete vehicles, while various trading partners, including Mexico, Canada and China, will impose across-the-board tariffs on imports.

According to ABC News, "A Conference Board survey showed that consumer attitudes deteriorated more than expected in March, falling to their lowest level since 2021."

Some economists have predicted that Trump's industrial policies will lead to a recession in the United States, an economy that is essentially defined by consumerism, but consumers are expected to lose confidence as tariffs hit and prices rise.

The reality of declining confidence is reflected in freight rates, particularly spot freight rates, which are actually the pulse of the container shipping industry.

In this week's rate report from Drury Shipping Consultants, the WCI Composite index, which has been falling since December, fell a further 4 percent to $2,168 per 40-foot container, but is 53 percent higher than the pre-pandemic average of $1,420 per foot container.

In terms of specific routes, spot freight rates on the Shanghai-Los Angeles route fell 6% week on week to $2,487 per TEU, down 35% year on year. Spot freight rates on Asia-New York routes fell 4% week on week to $3,622 per TEU, down 28% year on year.

Spot freight rates on Asia-Europe routes also fell on a weekly basis, with rates to Northern Europe falling 4% to $2,370/40ft, down 25% from the same period last year. Spot freight rates in the Mediterranean fell 17% from the same period last year to $3,171 per 40 feet.

Erik Devetak, chief technology and data officer at Xeneta, wrote on his blog after the Trans-Pacific Shipping Conference in Long Beach: "If there is one theme of TPM25 that stands out, it is this: the supply chain is no longer just unpredictable, but unthinkable. From Red Sea dials to tariff shocks, the past five years have forced logistics teams to rethink their strategies in real time. Those who can't adapt may be weeded out."

He went on to say that spot prices have been on a "rollercoaster" over the past five years, spiking during the outbreak and the Red Sea crisis, both of which had long-term effects.

"The gap between long-term and short-term rates is now narrowing and the weakness in spot rates could soon spill over into long-term contracts," Mr Devitak said.

These contracts are due to be completed on April 30, so the spot price now does matter.

With tariffs set to begin next week, ship operators and shipping customers will be watching closely for any subsequent rate adjustments.

Shippers and freight forwarders may think that the extraordinary series of events that have pushed shipping lines' profits to all-time highs is finally coming to an end, and the fundamentals do suggest that, but for the reality, the next few weeks will be instructive.