On the 29th, the latest Shanghai container export freight index SCFI showed an upward trend, rising by 3.41% to 2,233.83 points, ending two consecutive weeks of decline. This increase was mainly driven by the strong performance of the European and Mediterranean lines, which rose 22.49% and 19.9% respectively. However, US-West and US-East routes continued their downward trend, falling 12.46% and 0.86%, respectively.

The industry pointed out that the volume of European goods is stable and the supply is stable, so it is expected that the freight rate of the European line will continue to rise. As for the western United States, it is not expected to stop falling until late December. As for the impact of Trump's tariff policy on freight rates, it still needs further observation.

Considering that the Chinese New Year is ahead of schedule to the end of January next year, the industry is looking forward to seeing the traditional year of high cargo volume in mid-December, when the freight rate of the United States line will have the opportunity to stop falling or even rise. A number of freight forwarders said that the current volume of goods remained stable, but the United States West route due to excessive supply of capacity, resulting in a decline in freight rates, a total of $1,481 in four weeks. The loading rate of ships on the United States East route is not bad, and the decline has narrowed this week and entered the consolidation stage. The loading rate of ships on the European route is also performing well, as it is the last minute for the signing of long contract prices next year, the major carriers are pushing up freight rates again under the pull up, hoping to support long contract prices with spot prices.

According to the freight forwarder, it has received a notice from many major airlines to increase the freight rate of the European line, and the freight rate per 40 feet container rose to 5,500-6,300 US dollars on the 29th. However, the market reported that shipping giant Maersk rose to $5,200 from December 2-8, and then dropped to $4,700 from December 9-15. Other carriers are expected to respond, and the gains may be discounted.

In this regard, industry analysts believe that Maersk may be for the shortage of ports to provide special prices. It is also said that considering the big reshuffle of the shipping alliance in February next year, the new "Twin Star Alliance" formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd has accepted booking seats in early December, and airlines may adjust their pricing strategies in order to seize market share and customers, leading to fluctuations in freight rate increases.

Industry insiders said that the reason for the steady rise in European freight rates is mainly that the volume of goods is stable, the supply is stable, coupled with the imminent signing of a long contract, and the weather has led to the extension of the unloading time of various ports, which has jointly promoted the continued rise in freight rates. European freight rates are expected to rise to $6,200 in early December.

Logistics operators pointed out that before the Red Sea crisis is resolved, the global freight market is prone to large fluctuations. In addition, the end of January next year is the Lunar Year, the shipment demand emerged in advance, and the demand for the Far East-Europe line is quite tight. Large European shipping companies, such as Maersk, have notified customers to increase the price of the European line again from December 1, and other shipping companies have followed.

Next, there are two variables that can affect the short-term market price and volume movement. First, there will be a wave of shipments before the traditional lunar year, and many airlines and freight forwarders are expected to have the opportunity to increase cargo volume in mid-December; The second is the progress of labor negotiations in the United States East terminal, and it is reported that negotiations will be conducted again in December, whether there is a potential strike risk will affect the trend of freight rates on the United States West line.

The latest Far East-Europe line spot market price jumped 22% this week. Logistics operators say that the loading rate of the Asia-Europe line is good, so the price has rebounded; The volume of goods from Asia to the West of the United States was not good before, leading to a decline in prices, but with the fear of strikes in the East of the United States beginning in mid-December and the shipment tide before the lunar year, the volume of goods in the North American line is expected to pick up, and the price is expected to stop falling.

Logistics operators further pointed out that as long as the loading rate of the Far East-Europe line remains good, freight rates will not be depressed and the industry will not increase capacity investment. As long as there is no significant increase in supply and no shortage of goods, prices are likely to rise. The recent cold weather in European ports has led to slow operations and extended loading and unloading times, which has also affected the global supply of ships.

SCFI's latest freight index this week:

Freight from the Far East to Europe reached $3,039 /TEU, up $558 from the previous period, a weekly increase of 22.49%;
Freight from the Far East to the Mediterranean reached $3,682 /TEU, up $611, or 19.87%, from the previous period.
Far East to West America freight rate 3345 USD /FEU, down 476 USD or 12.45% from the previous period;
The freight rate from the Far East to the United States East was 4954 US dollars /FEU, down 43 US dollars, or 0.86%, from the previous period.

The freight rate of the ocean line returned to the file for a week, and began to strengthen this week, the Far East to Southeast Asia per TEU increased by 13 US dollars, or 2%, compared with the previous week; Far East to Kansai, Japan per TEU is the same as the previous phase; Far East to Kanto, Japan increased by $2 per TEU compared to the previous period, and Far East to South Korea increased by $1 per TEU compared to the previous period.